Cut the knot: learn to enjoy mathematics
A math books store at a unique math study site. Learn to enjoy mathematics.
Google
Web CTK
Best sites for teachers
Sites for teachers
Sites for parents
Terms of use
Awards

Interactive Activities
CTK Exchange
CTK Insights - a blog

Games & Puzzles
What Is What
Arithmetic/Algebra
Geometry
Probability
Outline Mathematics
Make an Identity
Book Reviews
Eye Opener
Analog Gadgets
Inventor's Paradox
Did you know?...
Proofs
Math as Language
Things Impossible
Visual Illusions
My Logo
Math Poll
Cut The Knot!
MSET99 Talk
Other Math sites
Front Page
Movie shortcuts
Personal info
Reciprocal links
Privacy Policy

Guest book
News sites

Recommend this site

Best sites for teachers
Sites for teachers
Sites for parents

Education & Parenting

Manifesto: what CTK is about Search CTK Buying a book is a commitment to learning Table of content Things you can find on CTK Chronology of updates Email to Cut The Knot Recommend this page
There are two bears - white and dark. We may reasonably ask several questions:
  1. What is the probability that both bears are male? Writing 'm' for male and 'f' for female and counting the lighter bear first we get four possible outcomes (ff, mf, fm, mm) of which only one should be considered favorable. The answer, therefore, is 1/4.
  2. Now assume I told you that one of the bears is male. What is the probability that both are males? Of the three possible outcomes (mf, fm, mm) only the last where both bears are male is favorable. The answer is 1/3.
  3. Now the last question. I am telling you that the lighter bear is known to be male. What now is the probability that both of them are males? Please stop for a while and think of the problem. Try to answer the question before looking into the solution.

Male bears, first solution to the last question

Since it's now given that the lighter bear is male there are only two possible outcomes (mf, mm). Thus the probability that both are male goes up to 1/2. Note how each additional piece of information changed the number of possibilities and, hence, the probability of the outcome.

Male bears, second solution to the last question

The sequence of three question is supposed to lead one on to wondering what difference does it make to specify that the white bear is male. And, in my experience, the trick works too. But since it's now known that the white bear is male, its sex is removed from the realm of random. All that matters is the sex of the dark bear who is believed to be male with the probability of 1/2. A short way to express the same idea is as follows:

P("both are male" | "white is male") = P("dark is male")

where P(A|B) means the (conditional) probability of A provided B is known to take place.

Reference

  1. M.Gardner, aha! Gotcha. Paradoxes to puzzle and delight, Freeman & Co, NY, 1982

Thanks are due to my son David for the two beautiful pictures.

Copyright © 1996-2008 Alexander Bogomolny

28766551Page copy protected against web site content infringement by Copyscape


Search:
Keywords:


Latest on CTK Exchange
Math
Posted by Laura
2 messages
06:56 AM, Apr-15-08

Divisibility rules - Jargon buste ...
Posted by Carolyn
2 messages
08:35 AM, Apr-04-08

drawing puzzle
Posted by martin gran
31 messages
06:53 PM, May-09-08

conway's game of life
Posted by frequency
0 messages
11:52 PM, May-12-08

Mistake on the page (an aside, Be ...
Posted by Max
4 messages
10:28 AM, Feb-28-08

A Riddle
Posted by idavis1
33 messages
06:59 AM, May-15-08

Josephus Flavius (correction)
Posted by David Turner
1 messages
09:42 AM, May-14-08