>You take one pancake and look at one side of it. You can
>have two situations: either that side is brown or it is
>gold. Those situations are mutually exclusive and together
>they add up to 100%. I thought that in those situations
>those chances can be added up.

You again mix right reasoning with wrong. The above is unquestionably right. But it does not explain why adding two rows in your table makes sense, especially because the probabilities add up to 200%!

Also, the experiment would lead to a correct estimate regardless of whether your addition is right or wrong. The fact that it does does not prove the addition is meaningful as it presented.

>I may be mistaken, however,
>it's been years since I studied maths or statistics other
>than just as a hobby.

That's OK.

>If you correct the mistake, you'll find that my addition
>still works :)

Does not mean anything. It may work for a wrong reason.

>
>You did call it "exactly the case when a wrong argument
>leads to the
>right answer", though. Or did I misread your meaning?
>

Why, this is how it reads.

>PS: Alex, please don't take this post the wrong way.

I do not know what that might mean.

>It's just that
>in this case I don't agree with your reasoning,

That's OK.

>but that
>doesn't diminish my respect in any way.

Just this once: please do not make it personal.

>You might want to delete this PS;

I can't. I can only delete whole messages.

>it is meant as a personal
>message anyway and not as something that is needed to be
>communicated to anyone who reads these discussions.

Sorry about that.